Fantasy Football Busts to Avoid in 2026: Expert Analysis and Commentary
As an avid fantasy football enthusiast, I'm always on the lookout for players who could potentially underperform and become busts. This year, I've identified four players who, in my opinion, are not worth the risk at their current average draft positions (ADPs). Let's dive into the details and explore why these players might not live up to the hype.
Trey McBride (TE – AR)
Trey McBride, the tight end from Arizona, was a sensation in 2025, finishing as the TE1 in total half-PPR points and half-PPR points per game. However, I believe his ADP of 17.3 as the TE1 is too high. The Cardinals' pass-heavy approach, led by Jacoby Brissett, played a significant role in McBride's success last year. But things might not be so rosy in 2026. With the arrival of Mike LaFleur as the new head coach and play-caller, the Cardinals' pass rate over expectation (PROE) is expected to decrease. Additionally, Brissett's holdout and the presence of Gardner Minshew as a backup quarterback could impact McBride's targets. While McBride is undoubtedly a talented player, his ADP as a second-round pick seems excessive, especially considering the potential for rookie quarterback play during the fantasy playoffs.
Malik Nabers (WR – NYG)
Malik Nabers, the wide receiver from the Giants, has been making headlines for all the wrong reasons. After undergoing a 'cleanup' procedure on his right knee, removing scar tissue that was causing stiffness, Nabers is facing another setback. The multi-ligament procedure and the secondary surgery raise concerns about his availability and performance. As a physical therapist, I can attest to the significance of these injuries and the potential impact on his draft position. Drafting Nabers as a WR1 in 12-team leagues or larger is, in my opinion, too ambitious. The likelihood of him missing time early in the year makes him a risky pick, and his current ADP reflects this.
Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ)
Garrett Wilson, the wide receiver from the Jets, has had a solid career so far, finishing as a WR2 in 12-team leagues in three of his four seasons. However, his ADP of 43 as a WR19 is intriguing. Wilson's success is heavily dependent on his quarterback play, and Geno Smith, the Jets' quarterback, had a less-than-impressive season last year. Among 38 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks, Smith ranked low in several categories, including passing yards per game and completion percentage over expectation. Additionally, the Jets' draft picks in tight end and wide receiver could further impact Wilson's targets. While he has the potential to finish as a WR2, his ADP suggests a higher ceiling than his median outcome for 2026.
Bucky Irving (RB – TB)
Bucky Irving, the running back from the Buccaneers, had a disappointing sophomore season in 2025, failing to live up to the expectations set by his rookie campaign. His rushing statistics were underwhelming, and the addition of Sean Tucker and Kenneth Gainwell further diminishes his role in the backfield. With Tucker handling the majority of the goal-line runs and Gainwell earning a substantial contract, Irving's receiving and touchdown production could be limited. Additionally, his offseason shoulder surgery raises concerns about his availability. Even without the health issues, Irving would be an ill-advised pick as a low-end RB2, but with the shoulder concerns, his ADP is, in my opinion, egregious.
In conclusion, these four players are not worth the risk at their current ADPs. While they have the potential to be successful, the risks associated with injuries, decreased playing time, and decreased production make them busts in the making. As an expert, I recommend avoiding these players and focusing on more reliable options in your fantasy football drafts.
